No physical storage medium lasts forever, and as you probably already know, hard drives in particular can die rather unexpectedly. But how long can you expect your drive to live? 5 years? 50? Backblaze has crunched some numbers to find hard drive failure rates.
The online backup service analyzed 25,000 hard drives it's kept consistently spinning over the last four years, noting when each drive failed. These are "consumer grade" hard drives, the majority of them internal ones but also a portion taken out of their external enclosures and mounted in Backblaze's data racks.
They found that hard drives have three distinct failure rates: in the first year and a half, drives fail at 5.1% per year; in the next year and a half, drives fail less—at about 1.4% per year; but after three years, failure rates skyrocket to 11.8% per year.
The good news is, 80% of hard drives last at least four years. The bad news is 20% of them don't. Backblaze doesn't have data beyond the four years measured so far, but extrapolated the data to predict a median lifespan of over 6 years for most hard drives.
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